Canada’s Rate-Hike Odds Are Rising

Current Oct. 28 odds shifted from near-certain hold before Sept. 2 to a coin flip, slightly favoring a hike after the US central bank moved.
Borrowing costs were already moving because bond yields climbed, and lenders use those yields to price mortgages, even if the central bank holds.
Oil tied to the Iran war drove inflation worries, while policymakers watched a gap between headline inflation near ~3% and gasoline-free inflation near ~2%.
Variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs feel policy changes fastest; a $400K balance over 25 yr could add roughly $50-$60 monthly per quarter-point increase.
Borrowing costs were already shifting regardless of Oct. 28; renewals soon may benefit from a rate hold, while longer timelines did not require panic.